According to Efthymios Lekkas, a gradual de-escalation or an earthquake measuring around 6 on the Richter scale will now follow. Sharp drop in bookings for Santorini.
Possible scenarios for Santorini
In the area surrounding Santorini and Amorgos, seismic activity has been closely monitored due to its potential risks. This region has experienced numerous small earthquakes, with experts keeping a vigilant eye on possible developments.
As of mid-February 2025, the seismic activity showed a decline in frequency when compared to previous weeks, indicating a possible calming of the situation.
The Laboratory of Seismology at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens has been instrumental in analysing this activity. Using advanced techniques, such as artificial intelligence, the lab detected over 21,500 tremors between 26 January and 17 February. Among these, more than 18,600 had a magnitude of 1.0 or higher.
Recent Activity:
- On 16 February, over 770 earthquakes occurred, with the largest being a magnitude of 4.4.
- On 17 February, the region experienced 780 tremors, including a 5.1 magnitude earthquake.
These figures suggest the area continues to be seismically active, but at a reduced rate. From 15 February onwards, there was no significant uptick in small tremors.
On 18 February, seismic activities shifted to a new cluster area east of Anydros, leading to a notable 4.9 magnitude quake.
Distribution map of earthquakes in the Cyclades region (Santorini-Amorgos-Ios), recorded on February 16-17 (artificial intelligence analysis) and February 18 (daily analysis). The radius of the circles is proportional to the magnitude of the earthquake (legend top right), while the epicenters of earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 4.5 are marked with a star. The coloring corresponds to the focal depth, according to the color scale (right).
According to the data, Anydro island is moving west-southwest at a rate of 7 millimetres per day, while at the same time a downward movement of 6 millimetres is observed. This means that immersion is taking place.
Seismologists have been conducting gravity measurements and collecting rock samples on the island to determine density changes. This data helps in understanding the dynamics beneath the surface. The preliminary phase of these studies was successfully completed in mid-February 2025.
In terms of risk management, two primary scenarios exist. One is a gradual decrease in activity, suggesting the area might return to its typical seismic state soon. The other scenario is less favourable, potentially involving a strong earthquake around magnitude 6.0.
This could cause damage to older structures and trigger landslides in Santorini’s caldera area.
The risk assessment and preparedness strategies are crucial for ensuring the safety of residents and infrastructure on the island. Local authorities, supported by experts from the risk management and crisis response committee, develop operational plans for different earthquake outcomes. They also emphasise preparedness in schools and community buildings.
Monitoring continues with the installation of advanced GPS/GNSS systems, providing precise data on ground movements.
These tools, alongside seismic data, play an integral role in forecasting and preparing for potential geological shifts. Collaborative efforts involving different scientific disciplines are helping to mitigate risks and create more reliable predictions about future events.
Volcanic eruption unlikely
With the data collected, experts from the university led by Effie Lekkas have analysed and outlined the potential future scenarios.
So far, the volcanic region of Kolumbo is not expected to erupt for another 10,000 years, and the formation of a new volcano would take even longer.
The seismic activity has shown a decrease recently, with minor shifts eastward near Anydro island, indicating changes in the spatial clustering of these earthquakes.
This detailed monitoring emphasises the importance of such studies in understanding and predicting seismic and volcanic activity in the region.
Bookings in Santorini: Current Status
Santorini, one of the most iconic destinations in Greek tourism, is facing new challenges that may disrupt its tourist season.
While long-term bookings remain stable, there has been a noticeable halt in new reservations, and cancellations are rising for the Easter period.
Local tourism authorities are closely monitoring these developments, with tour operators adopting a wait-and-see approach and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Geological concerns have been a factor in the sluggish nature of new bookings.
Although there have been no mass cancellations for the summer months, the period around April and Easter has seen significant impact.
According to local hoteliers, cancellations stem from both domestic and international markets, especially as both Catholic and Orthodox Easter coincide on April 20 this year.
In terms of short-term rentals, the situation appears more concerning.
Alexander Karavitis, managing director of Hosthub, stated at the ShortStay Conference 2025 that cancellations so far are twice as high as last year, currently at 50% of reservations (compared to 24% during the same period last year).
There has been a specific emphasis on cancellations for April and May, while summer bookings still hold potential.
The Stance of Tour Operators
There has been a noticeable decline in interest from tour operators regarding Santorini.
Reports indicate that new bookings have reached minimal levels.
Antonis Pagonis, president of the Santorini Hotel Association, highlighted that just a week ago, bookings were at normal levels, but since then, a sharp drop in demand has been observed, particularly from the United States.
This market is crucial for the island, but signs of fatigue are evident. While there have been no cancellations, the rate of new reservations is concerning.
Cruise Industry and Santorini
The cruise industry plays a significant role in Santorini’s tourism landscape, attracting thousands of visitors seeking to experience the island’s stunning scenery and unique amenities.
Despite the slight decrease in new bookings, cruise operators continue to schedule trips to the island.
However, the uncertainty surrounding future reservations creates challenges for local businesses reliant on cruise tourism.
Each season, Santorini rolls out the welcome mat for numerous cruise ships, bringing tourists eager to explore its renowned caldera views, picturesque villages, and diverse culinary offerings.
As destinations like Oia and Fira become popular stops, local establishments including restaurants and galleries experience increased traffic.
Nevertheless, the current market conditions may alter expected visitor numbers.
Concerns for the Upcoming Tourist Season
Tourism stakeholders express valid concerns regarding the upcoming season, especially with rising cancelations and a slowdown in new bookings.
The combined effects of the global economic climate, shifts in travel behaviour, and local geological worries create an uncertain atmosphere.
The focus is on finding immediate solutions to stimulate demand and inspire confidence in potential visitors.
Anxiety also exists regarding how these trends might influence Santorini’s reputation as a top-tier tourist destination.
Continuous engagement with travel partners and proactive marketing strategies are essential for navigating these trying times. It is critical to maintain appeal and address concerns directly, particularly from potential visitors in key markets.
The Need for Strategic Interventions
In light of current challenges, there is a growing recognition of the need for strategic interventions within the Santorini tourism sector.
Long-term solutions will rely on collaboration between local authorities, hoteliers, tour operators, and stakeholders to outline effective approaches.
This includes marketing initiatives that highlight Santorini’s unique offerings, ensuring visitors feel that the island is both appealing and safe.
Identifying potential areas for diversification of tourist activities may also assist in maintaining visitor interest.
From archaeological sites like Ancient Thera to the famed sunset views at Oia, Santorini’s rich history and stunning landscapes remain strong draws.
Furthermore, promoting lesser-known aspects of the island could enhance the overall tourism experience.
Engaging potential tourists through social media and digital platforms could play a pivotal role in rekindling interest in visits to Santorini.
Frequently Asked Questions
Earthquakes Updates in the Aegean
Recent earthquakes in the Aegean
Advice for Tourists During an Earthquake in Santorini
Tourists are advised to stay calm and seek open spaces if outside, or take cover under sturdy furniture indoors during an earthquake.
Following instructions from local authorities and emergency services is crucial for safety.
Information from the Greek Civil Protection for earthquakes (in English)
What are the typical steps for reducing earthquake risks in Santorini?
In Santorini, reducing the risks associated with earthquakes involves several steps. These include continuous monitoring of seismic activity, reinforcing buildings to withstand tremors, and educating the public on safety measures.
How might a magnitude 6 quake on the Richter scale affect Santorini’s structures?
A magnitude 6 earthquake could cause considerable damage, especially to older buildings that have not been updated. There is a chance that some structures may collapse or sustain severe damage, given the intensity of the shake.
What emergency measures are in place for tourist-heavy areas like Santorini in the event of a major earthquake?
Santorini has emergency plans that focus on ensuring the safety of tourists. These include evacuation routes, trained response teams, and clear communication channels to guide visitors to safety during an earthquake.
How does the strength of a magnitude 6 earthquake compare to other historical earthquakes in Santorini?
Historically, Santorini has experienced various seismic events. A magnitude 6 earthquake is considered significant but not unprecedented. Comparing past quakes helps in preparing and assessing potential impacts.
What historical insights exist about seismic activity and its effects on Santorini?
Santorini has a long history of seismic activity due to its volcanic nature. Past records shed light on how earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have shaped the island, affecting both the landscape and the infrastructure.
What advice is given to travellers regarding earthquake alerts in Santorini?
Visitors to Santorini are advised to stay informed about any earthquake alerts through local authorities.
It is recommended to know the emergency exits in lodgings and to participate in safety drills if offered, ensuring a swift response in case of an actual event.
